Although this is a site about American politics, we have had a number of discussion threads on the election here in the Great White North, and hopefully some dual-citizen, transplanted Americans, Canadians who are as interested in US politics as our own (like me), and just interested American Kossaks will be interested in chatting, talking and sharing their own ideas about our national elections, which are taking place as we speak, today the 14th of October. Be careful though, it is quite a long journey, spanning almost 4 million square miles (and several pages in a Word document).
**Updates will come up here, unless someone else is interested**
**Unfortunately, the Elections Act says**
- No person shall transmit the result or purported result of the vote in an electoral district to the public in another electoral district before the close of all of the polling stations in that other electoral district.
So I'm somewhat concerned about posting any results
First of all, if you want some basic background on the system and the parties, look at my diary from yesterday, which is a basic primer.
Here in this diary, I tried to get a little more into a summary of the campaign, followed by my own predictions for each province and some ridings to watch in each. This ended up really long, much longer than I expected it too, and I spent more time on predictions than on the campaign, since, frankly, I went back and found very little of substance happened during the month.
So, without further ado, and with the caveat that I have tried to approach this as neutrally as possible, here goes. If you just want to chat, scroll down and have at it, I'll probably be hanging around throughout the night.
I sat down to write out my own thoughts and a summary of the campaign, only figure out that not much really seemed like it happened outside Quebec. I was looking for large defining moments, but thinking back, I only could come up with a single one.
In the first week, all the parties were off to a flying start, with the Conservatives facing trouble after they posted a picture of Dion with a puffin pooping on his shoulder. Seriously, a puffin? I never understood why a puffin in particular, perhaps I’ve missed something. Other early highlights included the Liberals not having a plane for the first few days, though they insist that they planned it that way. Jack Layton had a strong start by framing the election battle as himself against Stéphane Dion, and though everyone politely rolled their eyes at him when he did, he did follow on that message throughout. I remember watching Duceppe’s speech after the writ dropped, and he was tearing big chunks out of Harper before the PM even managed to reach for his sweater vest. The main highlights to me were: a) the Sweater vest ads, as Harper desperately tried to portray himself as a safe, warm, fuzzy, friendly guy. That worked out well. b) The issue of the debate. Elizabeth May and the Green Party thought they would be in. The Conservatives and the NDP didn’t want them in, worried that the sort-of alliance between the Liberals and Greens, who share similar environmental plans, would basically result in two Liberal advocates in the debate. However, there was some fierce backlash against Layton from within his own party, especially due to the poor optics of the three men shutting out the woman. After Layton capitulated, Harper basically just went along with the crowd. c) Whichever Toronto Star columnist (I can’t find the article now) suggested that any minute they expected Layton to start telling the crowd at an event about ‘his father from Kenya and his mother from Kansas’.
In terms of polling, despite no real events of note, the Conservatives at this point looked pretty primed for a run at a majority. Despite courting federalists, the Bloc was faltering in Quebec, while the Liberals had slid down to the point where they were just barely ahead of the NDP. The sweater vest ads were working.
Even though I was breathlessly following the campaign at the time, the next two weeks are a total blur. As a GTA Anglophone, I have no idea what goes on in Quebec media, so the main thing I noticed was that the Bloc seemingly out of nowhere began polling 10 points higher in Quebec than they had. Of course, what I didn’t really pay attention to at the time was, ultimately, the turning point in the campaign.
An announcement of cuts to the arts and tougher sentences on youth criminals are not exactly real shocking game-changers from a Conservative campaign. So if I even heard them, I didn’t really care. Of course, I was not figuring precisely how these two policies would go over in Quebec, and the fact that Stephen Harper gave his majority chances a sharp beating. Interestingly, this occurred at some of the weakest moments for all the opposition parties, as the NDP had failed to really find momentum, and the Liberals seemed to have no consistent message at all. If you look at Nanos polls, you can find that the BQ was as low as 6% nationally. Two weeks later, they were at 10%. This increase probably took them from fighting for 30 seats to fighting for 50. The way I figure it, it finally allowed the attacks that Duceppe had been making all campaign to stick. He finally had something that he could point to and say "Aha, see, he really is just an Albertan trying to screw us Quebecers."
Of course, at the same time some tiny economic fluctuations happened to be taking up a lot of air in the campaign. But in the lead-up to the ‘bailout bill’ in the US, there wasn’t really much effect in the campaign itself, beyond changing the target of the rhetoric. No one really knew what was going on, so no one really knew how to address it. During this time, the Conservatives were flirting, and at times, going over the 40% barrier, looking like a good shot at a majority, even as their hopes dwindled in Quebec.
However, as the parties headed into the debate, the Liberals started to get a little steam, pulling back some ground in the polls, and exposing ‘Australiagate’, as Bob Rae gleefully acted as the host for a clip show of side-by-side speeches from Stephen Harper and Australia’s PM John Howard, showing that they had nearly identical language in their speeches urging their respective countries to support the attack on Iraq. This could have earned good play in 2004, and decent in 2006, but I think it this campaign it just seemed so distant that no one really cared, despite the fact that it got more international attention than any other campaign moment.
So, Harper was reeling somewhat entering the French and English language debates, and really seemed to struggle in the French debate, projecting next to no empathy and not really aggressively going after either Dion or Duceppe, who were really the main players. While Duceppe was and is always expected to win the French debate, the debate went to Dion, who was pronounced the winner by an Ipsos post-debate poll, much to the surprise of the Quebec media, who have no particular love for Dion. This led to a brief boost for the Liberals in Quebec, such that, combined with the Conservative collapse, they pulled nearly even with the CPC in the province, something that seemed impossible at the start of the campaign. Dion looked good by coming to the debate with a 30-day plan, even if the plan was basically, ‘have a bunch of meetings with people’. He seemed proactive, while Harper seemed too stand-pat. This seemed to me the first time that the Liberals had a serious message against Harper that might stick, ‘doing nothing is not enough’.
The English debate was more of a clusterf*ck, as it always seems to be. Dion got hammered a couple of times, especially by Layton, who questioned why he should be PM if he couldn’t even do a good job as Opposition Leader. May was very feisty, and pushed Harper hard, but really didn’t seem to expound too much on the Green platform. Still, she avoided just sitting back and letting the other parties talk about ‘real issues’ before chiming in on the environment, as I have seen Green candidates do before. Harper did better than in the French debate, unsurprisingly, but while he was declared the "winner" by Ipsos, the same poll found that he was the leader that lost the most favourability, so really the win on the night went to Layton and/or May. Dion survived, managing to look empathetic and also not a complete puffin-dropping of a leader.
Given that talk coming into the debate was about whether the Liberals would manage to stay ahead of the NDP, there can be little question that it was a success from that perspective. In the days following the debate, the Liberals continued on some momentum, closing the polling gap, almost in concert with the collapse of the market. This is not really about Dion as much as it is about Harper, who was generally perceived, at least in the media, of not really caring about the credit crisis, and overall sitting on his hands while Dion at least had something he could pretend was a plan. The combination of this with the unfortunate echoing of John McCain’s ‘the fundamentals are strong’ argument (even though the fundamentals still were, and are fairly strong) allowed the Liberals a way back into the race. I must also admit from here on in that Dion seemed to have generally better English in his speeches and a bit more fire to him. The debates and the rise in the polls really seemed to galvanize him and it almost looked like a real race might be forming up in the final days.
However, from then the race for the top spot seemed to have hit a bit of a snag. While some could blame it on the disastrous ATV interview Dion gave, Liberal numbers had already started to fall back before that, perhaps as the total collapse of the stock market seemed to abate somewhat. While Harper was panned for suggesting that ‘this was a good time to get bargains on the stock market’, the fact is it was true, and that things aren’t quite as bad here as in the US, and while Harper didn’t charge up in the polls, he managed to stem the bleeding. Meanwhile, the Liberals slow slide back was to the benefit of the NDP, who seemed to be growing in momentum at the right time, headed into the final days. Liberal support also bled off to the Green Party, though whether it stays there is beyond me. The bad news for the left is that on Sunday and Monday Stephen Harper seemed to have two fairly strong days of polling, suggesting that he may have some serious momentum entering the big day.
So, to summarize, I’ll present the six major polls that I use for my projections, and their final national results.
Two polls that collected Monday data: EKOS: C 34.6, L 26.4, N 19.4, B 9.8, G 9.6 Angus Reid: C 37, L 27, N 20, B 9, G 7
Two that finished on Sunday: Nanos: C 34.2, L 26.7, N 21.4, B 9.5, G 8.2 Harris-Decima: C 34, L 29, N 18, B 9, G 8
Two early finishers: Strategic Council: C 33, L 28, N 18, B 10, G 11 Ipsos: C 34, L 29, N 18, B 9, G 8
Note that all of these are of ‘decided’ voters, and thus do not include undecided as a percentage. EKOS, the latest pollster, report only 6% undecided. The earlier-finishing polls tend to suggest a higher percentage, with Strategic Council at around 12, Nanos at 16 and Harris-Decima at ‘almost 1 in 5’. While this would seem to be consistent with many making up their mind late, EKOS had only 7% earlier in the week, so it would instead seem to be a systematic failing. However, given the decline in turnout in recent years, it is unclear if these undecided will show up at the polls, especially given a campaign that has really been lacking any central issue at all.
Using a time-weighted average, the overall national projections look like this (brackets denote 2006). Conservative 34.4 % (-1.9%) Liberal 27.0% (-3.2%) NDP 19.3 % (+1.8%) Bloc Québécois 9.6% (-0.9%) Green 9.0% (+4.5 %)
To me the obvious question are the Greens. This is an ideal sort of campaign for a high Green percentage, with neither leading party really looking like they have a serious plan and a serious leader. Still, if 1 out of every 20 NDP voters, and 1 out of every 5 Green voters decide to vote Liberal, the results would look very similar to 2006.
As it is, it looks to me like we can say this: Winners: Jack Layton - There is a serious chance for the NDP to crack the 20% barrier, something they have only ever done once. Layton looks set for potential breakthroughs in Montreal and in St. John’s, and has a chance of holding the only non-Conservative seat in Alberta. They look like they will put up a stiff challenge in BC and through the Maritimes as well.
Elizabeth May (provisional) – I will remain sceptical about the Green vote right up until 9 PM. They lost about a point off of their polling total last election, but given the close relationship between the Greens and the Liberals, I could see a potential larger shift away. Basically, the Greens have got to prove to me that they will really pull this off. If they do, a doubling in support would be huge for Elizabeth May, even if she is unsuccessful in earning a seat.
Gilles Duceppe – Looked like he was left for dead, but Harper left a door slightly ajar, and the most seasoned campaigner of the field pounced. With sovereignty as back-burner as it has been in many, many years, Duceppe has courted a soft federalist vote that was earlier strongly considering voting for Harper. If the Conservatives were to find a way to a majority with a poor Quebec standing, it’ll be interesting to see if that will raise or lower Duceppe’s standing.
Push: Stéphane Dion – A huge loser for the first half of the campaign, as the Liberals seemed to be adrift and have no real drive, but managed to save his own bacon enough in the second half with a dynamite French, and OK English debate. He could easily steer his party to its weakest performance ever, but he could also do it losing only a handful of seats, and remaining the Official Opposition. Interestingly, we also saw something quite interesting in the final days, as the likes of Sheila Copps, Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin all rallied together behind Dion, something that would have seemed silly some time ago. Somehow, the Liberals through some kind of bizarre momentum together in the final weeks, and I personally hope they will be rewarded. The fact that Dion might actually remain Liberal leader after this election suggests that even the party considers it somewhat of a tie, given that the calls for his head seemed to have really quieted in recent weeks.
Loser: Sweater Vest Steve – He may have said he was calling the election because Parliament was dysfunctional, but who bought that. The question from the beginning was "can he avoid offending anyone and be uninteresting enough to get a majority?" The answer by the end of the campaign seemed to be no, though it is not entirely impossible. The bizarre stance on arts and crime, two positions that gained him next to nothing in English Canada while costing him hugely in Quebec, was for me the campaign’s defining moment. From there, he looked somewhat callous through the credit crisis and market collapse, though a late recovery may help him look more prescient and give him a small boost. Still, considering that his chances of gaining seats are not much better than his chances of losing seats, this was a total disaster.
Ok, so those are my thoughts. Now, I’ll present my projections, first overall, then region by region with some ridings to watch.
Overall projections: Conservative 124 Liberal 92 NDP 38 Bloc Quebecois 52 Green 0 Independents 2
These are perhaps somewhat Liberal favouring, at least compared to just a general prediction based on national percentages, but I hope that my regional system will be somewhat more effective. If the late Conservative shift that Nanos seemed to detect in its final night polling is accurate, this could be quite a bit off. However, I’m a little sceptical, since I’m not certain of how accurate polling over a holiday weekend can be, when many people will not be home, reducing the available survey population even more.
Newfoundland and Labrador Polls close: 7:00 PM EST 2006 Results: Liberal 4, Conservative 3
The main story for the easternmost part of Canada is Premier Danny Williams ABC – Anyone But Conservative campaign plan. Conservative support has fallen across the Atlantic region, but nowhere quite like in Newfoundland, where it is certainly possible that Conservative blue will be wiped off the map. The Liberals will be the primary beneficiaries of Danny’s beef with Harper, but the NDP are poised for at least one big win here as well.
Projection: Liberal 6, NDP 1
Ridings to watch:
Avalon – This riding is all of the Avalon Peninsula in the Southeast, except for St. John’s proper. It features the only incumbent Conservative in the province. An early poll showed Manning ahead of Liberal Scott Andrews, but things seemed to have gone south in the province for the Cons. Still, if Newfoundlanders want a cabinet member, this would seem to be their only real chance at one.
St. John’s East – A typically Conservative riding, a recent poll of the riding showed the NDP candidate, Jack Harris, well ahead of the others. While my system suggests that this would be a Conservative Hold, the ABC campaign has drained all momentum from a set of little-known candidates, allowing a well-liked NDPer to seize the seat
St.John’s South-Mount Pearl – Formerly held by Loyola Hearn, this now appears to be a Liberal-NDP battle, as it was the strongest NDP riding in the province last time around. Layton has visited St. John’s a fair amount, and this riding could go either way, I see Siobhan Coady pulling it out for the Libs.
Prince Edward Island Polls close: 7:30 PM EST 2006 Results: Liberal 4
PEI has not elected a non-Liberal since 1984, but the Liberal Green Shift is not particularly popular on the Island, and Steven Harper was there to close out the campaign, suggesting that the Cons see a serious chance of picking up a seat. I don’t project that they will, but there is a close race this time at least.
Projection: Liberal 4
Riding to watch:
Egmont – While I think the Liberals are under a fair amount of pressure in Malpeque and Cardigan as well, the real race to watch is on the west of the island, in Egmont. With the incumbent retiring, there is a serious chance for a Conservative pickup from Gail Shea, and a recent poll suggested she is ahead, though within the MOE and with a large undecided. I think the Liberal machine and tradition in the riding may be enough in a tight race.
Nova Scotia Polls close: 7:30 PM EST 2006 Results: Liberal 6, Conservative 3, NDP 2
Nova Scotia seemed like it might be able to support a conservative rise while the Conservatives hit a high point in regional polling, but they have fallen off in several polls of late, and I think Nova Scotia will basically return the status quo.
Projection: Liberal 6, NDP 3, Conservative 1, Independent 1
Ridings to watch:
Central Nova – This is a high profile seat because of the presence of former PC leader and current Minister of National Defence Peter Mackay, along with Green leader Elizabeth May. With the Liberals agreeing not to run a candidate against May, it’ll be interesting to see how the vote splits up. The NDP pulled a larger percentage than the Libs last time, so I don’t expect May to win, but it’ll be interesting to see if her debate performances give her a close race.
Cumberland-Colchester-Musqodoboit Valley – Former Conservative MP Bill Casey has held this riding three times, but was kicked out of his party for not supporting the budget, after feeling Harper broke his promise to Nova Scotians on equalization payments. I think Casey will win, but there is a chance that Conservative vote splitting could allow the NDP or the Liberal to come hard on the left.
Dartmouth-Cole Harbour – When I hear Cole Harbour, I think Sidney Crosby, but perhaps that’s just because I’m too hockey obsessed. This is a fairly safe Liberal riding, but a strong showing for the NDP in the Atlantic could get this one to a close margin. If the Liberals are struggling here, they will be in for a long night.
South Shore-St. Margaret’s – This area in the Southwest has been a Conservative seat for four terms, but won over a heavily divided left last time. With a Conservative drop and an NDP rise, this is a seat I see falling into NDP hands, and just like the seat above, will be a reasonable measure for how undecided might break across the country.
New Brunswick Polls close: 7:30 PM EST 2006 Results: Liberal 6, Conservative 3, NDP 1
New Brunswick is a bit of a strange mix, given its bilingual nature and proximity to both the US and Quebec. I’m not very confident at all about the overall prediction here, but I’ll stick with it nonetheless. Both Dion and Harper were in Fredericton to finish the campaign, so they see a battle in the province at least.
Projection: Liberal 7, Conservative 2, NDP 1
Ridings to watch: Fredericton – My system thinks this will be a safe hold for the Libs, but with a retiring incumbent and the leaders making late visits, there is clearly a possibility the Conservatives could pick up this seat.
Madawaska-Restigouche – This was a race of only 900 votes last time, with the Liberal holding off the Conservative. The same two candidates will rematch, but with the Conservatives polling down in the region, it’s not clear that they’ll be able to put up as stiff a challenge.
Tobique-Mactaquac – My weakest prediction in the province, I have this down as a Liberal pickup, but after losing a relatively well-known MP in Andy Savoy, will a much lesser known name be able to recapture the riding for the Grits. I don’t really feel it, but I’ll go with the numbers on this one. This is the least NDP riding in NB.
Québec Polls close: 9:30 PM EST 2006 Results: Bloc 51, Liberal 13, Conservative 9, Independent 1
As mentioned above, the province of Québec was where Harper had pinned all his majority hopes, but given that it looks like he will fall backwards in the province after his missteps, he will be fortunate to stem the bleeding enough to hold half his seats. The Bloc looked like slipping into the 30s, but should find themselves in the 50s yet again.
Projection: Bloc 52, Liberal 15, Conservative 6, NDP 1, Independent 1
Ridings to watch:
Ahuntsic – This Montreal riding features a 2006 rematch, as former Liberal MP Eleni Bakopanos takes on current Bloquiste MP Maria Mourani. With the Liberals seeming to recover from their 2006 collapse, at least partially, this is one I think a well-known challenger will retake.
Beauport-Limoilou – This is a Conservative gain from the 2006 elections that will likely fall back to the Bloc, as they won by only a couple of points last time.
Brome-Missisquoi – A US bordering riding that, like Ahuntsic, features a Bloc-Liberal rematch from 2006, with a Liberal MP trying to get back his seat. Here however, the Conservatives will take a larger chunk of the federalist vote, and I think the Bloc will hold.
Brossard-La Prairie – A Greater Montreal Area riding lost by the Libs to the BQ in 2006 that could come right back, but this one is much iffier than Ahuntsic. Could be quite a close race, worth watching to see how the Liberals will fair across the Montreal area.
Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles – As with Beauport-Limoilou, this is a Conservative pickup from 2006 in the Quebec City region, but was a win by less than 900 votes, and looks like it could slip the other way.
Gatineau – Another riding in what can be called the National Capital region, but this time the Canadian capital, this is a similar story, as it 2006 a fairly safe Liberal riding chose a BQ candidate, not going Liberal for just the second time in the riding’s 60 year history. With the Liberals coming back somewhat, you would expect this one could be a retake, but I think three-way federalist vote splitting will leave the Liberal short and the Bloc holding.
Jeanne-Le Ber – A similar story to other Montreal ridings, switching from Liberal to Bloc in 2006, but this one is not as strong a Liberal bastion as some of the others, and was only a bare margin win in 2004, let alone 2006. A local survey showed the Blocquiste, Thierry St-Cyr ahead, but just at the margin with high undecided. This is another bellwether as to whether the Liberals are having a good night, as this could basically result in a Liberal recapture of the whole of the West Island. I don’t think they’ll get there, though.
Jonquiére-Alma – Steven Harper looks like he will lose one of his Cabinet ministers, as Minister of Labour Jean-Pierre Blackburn is in serious trouble of dropping his seat in the Saguenay. He won fairly comfortably in 2006, but I would expect a fierce Bloc response from a typically strong BQ riding.
Louis-Hébert – We talked in yesterday’s thread about gigantic tool Luc Harvey accosting BQ leader Gilles Duceppe at a Quebec City campaign stop, and that’s a clear sign of desperation. A recent poll shows Harvey down double digits, as the dark blue wave across Quebec City looks to be repainted light blue.
Outremont – Winning a historic seat in a by-election is one thing, doing it in a general is another. However, I suspect that NDP MP Thomas Mulcair will have little problem duplicating his by-election feat and earning the parties first general election Quebec seat. If a challenge comes, it will come from Liberal Sébastien Dhavernas.
Papineau – Another riding we talked about yesterday, star Liberal candidate Justin Trudeau is going after a riding that has typically been hotly contested between the Liberals and Bloc. The combination of a Liberal rise in the province and a well-known candidate against a fairly non-descript first term MP makes this a more likely pickup for my money than most of the others in Montreal.
Ontario Polls close: 9:30 PM EST 2006 Results: Liberal 54, Conservative 40, NDP 12
This is where the election will be won and lost. If the Libs can get back to 2006 numbers, there will be a very tight Parliament. If not, as I expect, it will be a Conservative government. If the Libs really collapse in the final days, a Conservative majority is possible.
Projection: Conservative 45, Liberal 43, NDP 18
Ridings to watch:
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing – The NDP is surging across the North of the province, and several Northern ridings will be worth watching. This could be one of the closest, with MP Brent St-Denis under heavy pressure. This is the smallest riding in the province in population, and heavily Francophone and First Nations as well.
Beaches-East York – The totally opposite front of the Liberal-NDP battle. This Eastern Toronto riding has been held by Liberal Maria Minna for a long time, and while I think she will be heavily tested, I suspect she will hold on yet again, under a heavy assault from second-time candidate Marilyn Churley.
Brampton West – Watch this riding to know if the Liberals are going to be in trouble in the GTA. With the incumbent retiring, there is a real push for the Conservatives in this heavily East Indian and immigrant riding. I think it will be a Liberal hold, but it is not trending well for them here.
Brant – Less than 600 votes separated the Liberal and Conservative here, and this is the type of riding where falling Liberal fortunes mean that only strategic voting from Greens and NDP will save Lloyd St. Amand. I don’t think it will happen.
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell – This eastern, Quebec bordering, Francophone riding went conservative by less than 200 votes last time. It’ll be close again, but not as close, the Conservatives should be somewhat safe. Huron-Bruce – A Liberal riding since 1993, but it has been sliding towards the Cons more and more each election, and with the incumbent retiring the trend suggests a Conservative pickup, as the Liberals continue to struggle in the rural west of the province.
Kenora – Another close northern riding, this is a genuine three way battle, as all parties have topped 30% in at least one of the last two elections, and all three could do so this time. I think the NDP will edge their way into the seat, taking it from the Liberals, but any finishing order between the big three wouldn’t be a surprise. Someone winning a clear advantage here is good news for their party.
London North Centre and London West – Two close ridings in the southwest, both Liberal held in 2006, but with a very close margin in the West, while North Centre was a by-election featuring Elizabeth May in 2007. Despite a long-serving incumbent, I think the West will fall to the Conservatives, while North Centre stays red.
Mississauga South – Another GTA bellwether, Liberal Paul Szabo is a long serving MP who found himself in a close race in 2006, and faces another stiff challenge. This is the area of the province where the Liberal erosion would count the most in seats, and if the Cons have momentum they will take this one.
Newmarket-Aurora – This has typically been a Liberal area over history, but without the popularity of former MP Belinda Stronach, the Liberals will find the ground a little too uphill I suspect. Another GTA-area Conservative pickup.
Nickel Belt – A similar story to other northern seats, a retiring Lib will make way for the NDP.
Nippising-Timiskaming – This is projected in other places as a safe Liberal hold, but my system is less bullish, as it projects the Conservatives taking it by a very thin margin. MP Anthony Rota wasn’t under major pressure in 2006 after taking the seat in 2004, so perhaps he has a good local machinery to hold it.
Oak Ridges-Markham – My own home riding, I hope Liberal MP Lui Temelovski will hold off the Conservatives. This to me is a second tier GTA riding, behind the likes of Brampton West, Mississauga-South and Oakville. If those ridings look like safe Conservative ones, this one could be very tight.
Oakville – I have this as the closest race in the province, with Bonnie Brown of the Liberals under serious pressure. She won by just 750 votes last election, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the margin, whoever wins, was actually closer. I have Brown holding on by one-tenth of a percent.
Oshawa – The somewhat rare NDP-Conservative battleground, as GM and the CAW Union dominate the riding. Still, without Sid Ryan running, you wonder how close the NDP will get. A test of whose rise in the province is greater, I see a Conservative hold, but narrower as centre left voters slip to the Libs from the Dippers.
Ottawa South – I have this switching from the Liberals to the Conservatives, but this looks like a math quirk more than anything else, as I think the Premier’s brother will hold his seat fairly safely.
**Forgot this one originally**Parkdale-High Park - Billed as a major battle between Liberal leadership candidate Gerard Kennedy and Peggy Nash, who won the riding in 2006. While Kennedy's notoriety is a factor in his facour, this is a seat that trended towards the NDP in '06, so it's hard to see it slide back in a better year for the Dippers. A close race, but an NDP hold.
Sudbury – Another pressured northern Liberal riding, but this one has safe enough Lib-NDP margins that I expect a Liberal hold.
Thunder Bay-Rainy River and Thunder Bay-Superior North – Two more northern ridings that voted Liberal in 2006, and I think will slide to NDP this time around. In Superior North, Joe Comuzzi was elected as a Liberal, but switched to Conservative, the question is whether he will be well-liked enough to be a serious player in the race, and whether he will siphon off Liberal votes.
Welland – Stretching almost from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario, Welland is a key manufacturing area, and has been hit fairly hard by trouble in that sector. This is shaping up to be a classical three way race with the NDP’s surging numbers putting them just ahead in my books. Still, if you want a close battle, this is another one to look at, as the Liberals could lose another Southern Ontario seat.
Manitoba Polls close: 9:30 PM EST 2006 Results: Conservative 8, Liberal 3, NDP 3
The least conservative of the prairie and mountain regions, Manitoba is typical fertile NDP territory, as they seek to move up into second place behind the Conservatives. Western polls have shown the Conservatives well ahead, but this is partially due to Alberta, and it is difficult to get a real bead on Manitoba itself.
Projection: Conservative 7, NDP 4, Liberal 3
Ridings to watch: Churchill – A riding that touches three other provinces/territories, Churchill is historically an NDP base riding, but Tina Keeper stole it for the Liberals in 2004. However, it is difficult to imagine the Liberals making serious gains in this region, and I expect this heavily First Nations riding to flip back to the NDP.
Saint Boniface – A 15% francophone riding in the heart of Winnipeg, This has a long Liberal tradition, and while I expect the Conservatives to try push hard here, I predict a narrow Liberal hold.
Winnipeg South – Other predictions have called this as Conservative hold, but I’m not so sure. A very close race in 2006, and an incumbent who seems to have little profile even in government. Apparently local polling suggests that this is potentially a Liberal lead, which fits well with my prediction system. This switch may be the only Conservative loss in the Prairies if it happens.
Saskatchewan Polls close: 9:30 PM EST 2006 Results: Conservative 12, Liberal 2
Saskatchewan is looking more and more like Alberta every year, and though other predictions show an NDP seat, mine show a few close races with the Conservatives holding on.
Projection: Conservative 13, Liberal 1
Ridings to watch:
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River – This riding was captured by the Conservatives in a by-election, after being a Liberal seat. Former PC David Orchard is running for the Liberals, but I’m not sure if he’ll be terribly effective. This was a close race in 2006 when the Liberals took it, and I think the Conservatives will be able to hold on.
Palliser, Regina-Qu’Appelle and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar These are three ridings that I have marked as Conservative holds, but in all three the NDP will be mounting strong challenges. These are key sorts of ridings to gauge how the NDP will do in the remainder of the West. I would think that the ‘easiest’ pickup is Saskatoon-Rosetown, while the others are bigger longshots. Still, an NDP push in the province could flip all three.
Alberta Polls close: 9:30 PM EST 2006 Results: Conservative 28
The Conservatives will probably only field two or three candidates who will fail to get 50%, let alone winning their ridings. Layton has been in Edmonton, though, so he thinks there is an NDP chance.
Projection: Conservative 28
Riding to watch:
Edmonton-Strathcona – If the Big Blue army is to be stopped in the province, it rests on the shoulders of the NDP’s Linda Duncan. This was the second closest race in the province last time, and with the Libs down and the NDP up, looks like it will be the closest this year. I don’t think she’ll get there, but there may be a dot of orange on the map for at least a little while tonight.
The North (Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut) Polls close: 10:00 PM EST
2006 Results: Liberal 2, NDP 1 With no northern polls and relatively low turnout in many areas, these races are next to impossible to reliably call. I have chosen all three incumbents to safely win, but if any were to lose to a Conservative I would not be totally shocked.
Projection: Liberal 2, NDP 1
Riding to watch: Western Arctic – The closest looking riding in the North, and the only NDP-held one, I suspect they will hold again, but a northern Liberal surge could cause them trouble, as Bevington only won this riding in 2006, and it was Liberal before that.
British Columbia Polls close: 10:00 PM EST 2006 Results: Conservative 17, NDP 10, Liberal 9
BC is an interesting area, as it has some of the highest Green polling in the country, but it’s unclear how that will end up looking in the final returns. Decima has had the Greens ahead of the Liberals in several polls, but EKOS, Nanos and Ipsos Reid are not so bullish. The key here is more the NDP-Liberal equilibrium, and the presence of strategic voting. BC can potentially elect more NDPers and Grits than I have down if they team up to do so, but with both claiming themselves as the only option to stop Harper, I think it will not end up working out cleanly.
Projection: Conservative 22, NDP 10, Liberal 5
Ridings to watch: Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New Westminster – Two NDP held ridings in Burnaby that have very similar looking profiles in my projections. I expect the NDP to hold both, but it would not surprise too much to see three candidates at or near 30%, and three-way races can always be surprising.
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca – Another three way battle, while the Conservatives were really surging it looked like this could be a loss for Lib incumbent Keith Martin, but now that they have fallen off somewhat, this looks like it could be a fairly safe hold, as safe as one can be in yet another potential three-way race.
Newton-North Delta – This largest "Indian" identifying riding in the country features two Indian candidates for the Liberals and the Conservatives. The Liberal survived last time around, but this was a 2004 Conservative riding, and it could easily return that way.
New Westminster-Coquitlam – One of the few ridings where the NDP and Conservatives meet in direct conflict, Dawn Black upset a multi-term incumbent in 2006, but will be hard-pressed to hold the seat. One of the closest two-way races in the province should see a Conservative reclaim the riding, especially if Black cannot rally the Liberal vote to herself.
North Vancouver – My system projects this as a close Conservative takeover, but Liberal Don Bell is a former mayor of a portion of the area, and retains a fair amount of popularity, so the Libs could easily hold this win.
Richmond – The most ethnically Chinese riding in the country will chose between two Chinese candidates, Liberal MP Raymond Chan and Conservative Alice Wong. The Conservatives made up ground on the Liberals in 2006, and I expect that this one could stretch deep into the night in the East, with the Liberal just holding on in a very close race.
Surrey North – My system says NDP, but doesn’t know that the NDP lost incumbent MP Penny Priddy. The NDP are strong enough in the province that they should hold on to a riding they won fairly handily, but the margin will be much closer.
Vancouver Island North – An NDP takeover by just 700 votes last time, the Conservatives’ fortunes have improved enough that they can take it back. The Liberals were pretty incompetent last time, and will need to be again for a left party to have a chance at the seat.
Vancouver Kingsway – Liberal-turned-CPC David Emerson’s old riding causes havoc in the system, but I have the Liberals earning the seat back by tightly holding off the NDP. Really, though, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this go either way.
Vancouver Quadra – Too close for comfort in the by-election for Liberal Joyce Murray, but I don’t think that that can be reasonably played into the regular election. This is a strong Liberal seat, and I just don’t see the Liberals falling apart enough to lose it. If they do, a very bad BC result is likely.
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country – The only Green riding in the country was an elected Liberal riding in 2006, but Blair Wilson was kicked out of the party, and became a Green to help the party argue for a voice in the debates and a larger national presence. Still, I think the presence of a high profile Green will only splinter the left more, with Conservative John Weston coming for the win on the right.
Some fun ridings to watch: Biggest blowout: Crowfoot, AB. Conservative MP Kevin Sorenson has won with more than 80% each of the last two years, and there is no reason to expect that to change. If the second place candidate tops 8%, it will be a victory.
Conservative best: Crowfoot, see above.
Conservative worst: Laurier-Sainte-Marie, QC. The Conservative finished fifth behind the Greens in Gilles Duceppe’s riding in both 2004 and 2006. With Duceppe safe, Harper tanking, and the Greens and NDP moving up in national and provincial polls, Charles Langford will have a long night.
Liberal best: Mount Royal, QC. Liberal MP Irwin Cotler won by nearly 50% in the scandal-plagued 2006 year, no reason he should have trouble in a year that has seen the Libs gain a little in Montreal.
Liberal worst: Crowfoot again, but another one to watch in Alberta is Medicine Hat, where the Libs earned just 8% last time. Still, there are several ridings that look like the Liberals could land below 7%, so hard to say.
NDP best: Vancouver East, BC. NDP MP Libby Davies should hold very easily, but this could be close with a couple of other BC, Western and Atlantic ridings.
NDP worst: Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, QC. While the NDP is growing in Quebec, it is still their weakest province. This is a riding that has seesawed between the PCs and the Libs, then the Libs and the Bloc, but now looks like a fairly safe Bloc seat.
Bloc best: Montcalm, QC. Bloc MP Roger Gaudet consistently gets above 60% in this riding, the most populous in Quebec. Somehow it is appropriate that a riding named for a French general that fought the English would rally for the Bloc.
Bloc worst: Mount Royal again. The only Quebec riding to go below 10% Bloc support in both ’04 and ’06.
So, there are my predictions. Maybe they’ll all be wrong and I’ll look like a total idiot, but that’s half the fun of making predictions.
There’s still time to vote, no matter where in the country you are, so go do it if you haven’t!
I’ll add some links below as I update.
Results links: Canada Votes 2008 - CBC Results (10 PM)Globe and Mail Results (10 PM)